For decades, Moore’s Law provided a reliable compass for the semiconductor industry. Each new generation of chips delivered smaller transistors, higher performance, and lower costs. But as transistors approach atomic limits, the pace of scaling has slowed. The easy gains are gone, and the path forward demands more than incremental engineering improvements. To sustain leadership in computing, the U.S. needs to think bigger, much bigger. A national compute “moonshot” strategy, modeled on the ambition of the Apollo program, could provide the clarity, urgency, and coordination necessary to overcome the barriers beyond Moore’s Law. Erik Hosler, a strategist in technology grand challenges, underscores that compute leadership will hinge on setting audacious missions that capture talent, capital, and imagination. His perspective reflects a growing consensus: the next breakthroughs will come only if pursued with moonshot-level resolve.
A moonshot framing is not about incremental progress. It is about setting bold targets that demand breakthroughs across multiple domains. Just as Apollo mobilized an entire nation around a single goal, a compute moonshot would unify government, industry, and academia in pursuit of ambitious objectives. Whether the target is a million-qubit quantum computer, extreme energy efficiency, or fully hybrid architectures, the principle is the same: set goals so bold that achieving them reshapes global competitiveness.
The End of Easy Scaling
The semiconductor industry is grappling with the end of easy scaling. For decades, transistor density doubled roughly every two years, delivering predictable improvements in performance and efficiency. That cadence drove innovation not only in computing but across the economy, enabling everything from personal electronics to advanced defense systems.
Today, however, scaling faces physical and economic barriers. Transistors are now measured in nanometers, approaching atomic limits where quantum effects disrupt performance. The cost of building leading-edge fabs has soared into the tens of billions, limiting participation to a handful of companies and nations. Incremental advances still occur, but they come at immense expense and diminishing returns. This slowdown creates a strategic vulnerability. If the U.S. relies solely on incremental scaling, it risks falling behind competitors willing to pursue bold alternatives.
Lessons from Apollo
History shows that bold national missions can unlock transformative progress. The Apollo program, launched in response to the Soviet space challenge, mobilized unprecedented resources. At its peak, it consumed more than 4% of the federal budget, employed hundreds of thousands of workers, and catalyzed entire industries.
The results went far beyond landing astronauts on the moon. Apollo accelerated advances in aerospace, computing, and materials science. It inspired a generation of engineers and scientists. The mission’s audacity created ripple effects that shaped innovation for decades.
A compute moonshot could play a similar role. By setting a clear and audacious target, the U.S. could galvanize talent, align funding, and create an innovation ecosystem robust enough to tackle the challenges beyond Moore’s Law.
What a Compute Moonshot Could Look Like
A national compute moonshot must be bold, specific, and inspiring. Potential targets include:
- A million-qubit quantum computer by 2028: crossing the threshold into fault-tolerant computation.
- Extreme energy efficiency: achieving 1,000x–1,000,000x reductions in energy per operation to sustain AI and post-exascale computing.
- AI–hardware co-design: creating systems where AI accelerates semiconductor design, shortening cycles and enabling breakthroughs.
- Hybrid computing platforms: unifying CMOS, quantum, neuromorphic, and photonic systems under seamless software interfaces.
Infrastructure will be critical. The National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC) can serve as a hub, coordinating research across government, academia, and industry. Evergreen funds could provide patient capital, ensuring that moonshot projects receive sustained investment over decades rather than years. Public-private partnerships would provide the scale needed for ambitious projects. A moonshot is not one initiative but an ecosystem, structured around clear goals and sustained through long-term commitment.
Strategic Stakes
The stakes of a compute moonshot go far beyond technology. Compute power underpins artificial intelligence, defense systems, economic competitiveness, and even societal resilience. Nations that lead in computing will shape the trajectory of global industries, set standards, and secure critical advantages in security and intelligence.
Without bold programs, the U.S. risks ceding leadership to nations like China, which is investing aggressively in quantum, AI, and semiconductor infrastructure. Incremental progress will not suffice in the face of such competition. Leadership requires not only technical excellence but also the capacity to set and pursue ambitious missions.
A compute moonshot would make clear that the U.S. is committed to shaping the future of computing rather than reacting to it. It would align national priorities with the scale of the challenge.
Collaboration Beyond Borders
A national compute moonshot does not mean going it alone. Trusted allies must be part of the effort, just as international collaborations today support particle physics and space exploration. Shared investments, joint facilities, and aligned standards can accelerate progress while distributing costs.
Erik Hosler explains, “It’s going to involve innovation across multiple different sectors.” His observation underscores why collaboration is essential. A compute moonshot requires not only semiconductor advances but breakthroughs in materials, software, energy systems, and manufacturing. Coordinating these sectors across allied nations will ensure that progress is both faster and more resilient. Global collaboration also serves strategic ends. By aligning efforts with allies, the U.S. can build a trusted innovation ecosystem that excludes adversaries and protects critical technologies.
Boldness as Strategy
Moore’s Law carried computing for half a century, but its limits are now clear. Sustaining leadership in the decades ahead requires more than incremental improvements, but it requires moonshot-level ambition. By setting audacious targets, mobilizing resources, and uniting government, industry, and academia, the U.S. can define the future of computing.
A national compute moonshot is not just about technology. It is about strategy, inspiration, and competitiveness. Like Apollo, it can galvanize a generation, accelerate industries, and secure national leadership. Without such boldness, the U.S. risks stagnation. With it, the nation can define the trajectory of computing for decades to come. Boldness is not a luxury, but a strategy. The U.S. and its allies must act with urgency to turn ambition into action, ensuring that the post-Moore era is defined not by limits but by possibility.
